Bengals –3.5 vs Jaguars (+ Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 yards)
Cincinnati somehow escaped Week 1 with a 17–16 win over the Browns, despite looking awful on offense. Joe Burrow threw for just 113 yards, and the run game managed only 46 yards at 2.0 per carry. Nothing worked, but they still found a way to win. That’s the positive: their floor is high.
This week we expect a bounce back. Burrow and Chase won’t stay quiet two games in a row, and the Jaguars’ secondary just isn’t built to hold them down.
Side angle: Joe Flacco threw 290 yards against this Bengals defense, which makes Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 yards a solid play too.
Pick: Bengals –3.5 & Trevor Lawrence Over 241.5 passing yards
Cowboys –5.5 vs Giants
Dallas beat the Eagles, but Dak Prescott wasn’t sharp: 188 yards, no TDs. Instead, the ground game did the work – 119 rushing yards, 2 TDs – and CeeDee Lamb carried the passing attack with 7 for 110.
The difference maker is still the Cowboys’ defense. They held Jalen Hurts to just 152 passing yards and kept the Eagles’ offense in check. Giants, on the other hand, looked completely lost in Week 1.
This is the kind of matchup where Dallas’ defense can dominate, and the offense doesn’t need to be spectacular to cover.
Pick: Cowboys –5.5
Bills –8.5 vs Jets
Buffalo opened with a wild 41–40 win over the Ravens. Josh Allen was brilliant: 389 yards, 2 TDs, no picks, spreading the ball to Coleman (112 yards, 1 TD), Shakir, and Kincaid.
Yes, the defense got gashed for 238 rushing yards, but Jets don’t have a Derrick Henry + Lamar combo to punish in the same way. They simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace if Allen plays anywhere near this level again.
At home, with Allen locked in, Buffalo should control this from start to finish.
Pick: Bills –8.5
Steelers vs Seahawks – Under 41.5
Seattle scored just 13 points in a 17–13 loss to the 49ers. Darnold threw for 150 yards, and the entire offense outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (124 yards) was invisible.
Steelers, meanwhile, put up 34 points on the Jets, but going to Seattle is a different story. The Seahawks’ defense just held San Francisco to 17, and their offensive struggles will keep the game slow and low scoring.
Even if Rodgers and Pittsburgh get to 20+, it’s hard to see Seattle doing much more than 14–17 points.
Pick: Under 41.5